PAGASA Says El Niño Could Persist Into the First Half of 2027

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported in its El Niño Advisory No. 5, issued on October 7, 2026, that a strong to very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific.

Forecasts indicate that the climate phenomenon may reach its peak before the end of 2026 and continue through the first half of 2027.

PAGASA warns that El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, potentially contributing to dry spells and drought in some parts of the country. However, this does not mean that every region will experience drought or that rainfall will completely stop.

The agency also notes that above-normal rainfall can still occur when tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing weather systems affect the country.

Official source:
PAGASA El Niño and La Niña Advisories

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate pattern involving unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can influence atmospheric circulation and alter rainfall patterns across different parts of the world, including Southeast Asia.

In the Philippines, El Niño is commonly associated with a greater likelihood of below-normal rainfall, warmer conditions, dry spells and drought in affected areas. The actual effects vary by location and season.

Why Drought Risks Matter for the Philippines

Prolonged periods of insufficient rainfall can place pressure on agriculture, water supplies and other sectors that depend on reliable rainfall and reservoir storage. The severity of the effects depends on local weather conditions, existing water reserves and how long dry conditions persist.

1. Agriculture and Rice Production

Farmers may face challenges when rainfall is insufficient for planting, crop growth and irrigation. Extended dry conditions can increase the need for irrigation water and raise the risk of crop stress or reduced harvests in vulnerable areas.

The effects will not necessarily be the same across all provinces. Local rainfall forecasts, planting schedules and available irrigation supplies will be important in determining which farming areas are most exposed.

2. Water Supply and Reservoir Levels

Reservoirs and other water sources may come under pressure when rainfall remains below normal for an extended period. Communities that depend on stored water may need to pay close attention to local water advisories and conservation guidance.

A useful example is Pantabangan Lake in Nueva Ecija. NASA Earth Observatory documented substantial water-level declines there during the 2024 drought period, illustrating how prolonged heat and limited rainfall can affect a major Philippine reservoir.

3. Heat and Daily Activities

El Niño can contribute to hotter and drier conditions in affected areas. People working outdoors, farmers and communities with limited access to reliable water may face additional challenges during prolonged dry periods.

El Niño does not, by itself, determine the temperature or weather on any particular day. Residents should continue to follow official heat advisories and local weather forecasts.

Does El Niño Mean the Entire Philippines Will Experience Drought?

No. El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, but its effects are not uniform across the country. Some locations may experience more serious rainfall deficits, while others may receive rain from tropical cyclones, monsoon systems or other weather disturbances.

This is why regional forecasts and official advisories are important. A national climate outlook describes broad risks, but local conditions determine the impact on individual communities, farms and water systems.

What Filipinos Can Do to Prepare

• Follow PAGASA advisories and local government announcements about drought, rainfall and heat.
• Use water responsibly and repair leaking faucets, pipes and storage systems where possible.
• Farmers should consult local agricultural offices about irrigation planning, crop schedules and suitable water-management practices.
• Households should follow official guidance on safe water storage and conservation.
• During periods of extreme heat, limit strenuous outdoor activity when appropriate and follow public-health guidance.
• Check updates from local water utilities and relevant agencies rather than relying on unverified social media claims.

Where to Get Official El Niño Updates

For the latest information, consult these official and primary sources:

• PAGASA El Niño and La Niña Advisories — official climate advisories.
• PAGASA ENSO Monitoring — monitoring information on El Niño and La Niña.
• PAGASA Dam Information — available updates on monitored dam and reservoir water levels.
• NASA Earth Observatory: Water Levels Plunge in Philippine Reservoir — historical satellite imagery and background on Pantabangan Lake during the 2024 drought.

What Happens Next?

With PAGASA forecasting that El Niño could continue into the first half of 2027, rainfall patterns, reservoir conditions and local drought risks will remain important areas to watch. The degree of impact will depend on how the climate pattern evolves and how weather conditions develop across different regions.

For now, residents, farmers and local authorities should use official forecasts to guide preparations instead of assuming that every part of the country will experience the same conditions.

Editorial note: This article was prepared using PAGASA’s October 7, 2026 advisory and NASA Earth Observatory’s historical report on Pantabangan Lake. The satellite images are dated 2023 and 2024 and are included for historical context, not as evidence of current conditions.